Written By : Levi Obijiofor

There are two major challenges, among many, that have boxed Nigeria to a tight corner over the years. The first is the failure to determine the accurate number of people who reside within the country.

With open and unprotected borders that allow free but unauthorized entry for people of questionable character from other countries, Nigeria has become a central meeting ground for criminals on the run. This has opened doors for ex-convicts looking to relocate to another country, dissidents in search of an easy place to destabilize or stir up trouble and traffickers of illegal substances. There are also merchants of fake and contaminated drugs who constitute direct channels through which adulterated drugs are supplied to pharmacies, traders and teenagers who hawk fake drugs along the streets. Also, fake, illegal, and dangerous goods that circulate in local markets are circulated through Nigeria’s porous borders.

The second and persistent problem that has blown open Nigeria’s fragile political foundation is the inability to conduct free, fair, credible, and peaceful elections. The ability to hold free, peaceful, and genuinely transparent elections constitutes one of the symbols of a true democracy. A democratic nation is a country that holds regular free, fair, and credible elections. It is a country in which there exist strong political parties and an effective media system.

However, nearly 59 years after independence, Nigeria has continued to search unproductively for the right mix of strategies to facilitate the conduct of fair and trouble-free elections, in spite of the stupendous amount of money that has been invested to make every election successful and credible.

Another important exercise that has eluded Nigeria for a long time is the national population census. So far, no one has precise knowledge of Nigeria’s population. Nigeria’s population is rather estimated. The exact population of Nigeria has always been an explosive subject, especially given the fractured nature of the society. It is as sensitive as national elections that are contested in a do-or-die manner.

It is tragic that the last official census conducted in Nigeria took place in 2006, exactly 13 years ago. At the end of that disputed census, the NPC said unbelievably that there were one hundred and forty million, four hundred and thirty-one thousand, seven hundred and ninety people in the country. The figure was challenged immediately. The national outrage was palpable. There were diverse views about the accuracy of the census figures.

It is therefore very difficult to present an authoritative population figure in the absence of any head count in the past 13 years. The irritating trend of speculating about Nigeria’s population has persisted for years. Everyone talks about our population estimate, not about accurate population figure.

The importance of valid population census data cannot be overstated. Babatunde Fashola, former Governor of Lagos State, once warned that, “If the work of government is to provide services to people, its efficiency will be determined by its knowledge of how many people need service. And, therefore, without accurate census figures, it may seem that we are not determined to go on the path of development.” That is an incontrovertible statement. Government at any level cannot provide valuable services to people if it has no insights into the number of people for whom the services are intended. Precise population data are essential for national planning.

A national population head count was scheduled for 2016, 10 years after the last exercise in 2006. There has been no movement on that front. Nothing can be achieved when government operates with vague or incorrect population data. In that milieu, accurate planning, budgeting, and forecasting will remain unachievable. The existing situation has to be addressed urgently. Nigeria should be moving forward with factual data rather than operating on the basis of ill-informed, statistically incorrect data about its population size.

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